New Seat Details - Northampton North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Northampton North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	24,344	48.6%
LAB	21,821	43.6%
UKIP	1,804	3.6%
LIB	1,332	2.7%
Green	739	1.5%
CON Majority	2,523	5.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Northampton North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Northampton North

Old seat: Northampton North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Northampton North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Northampton North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northampton	Abington	5,286	Northampton North	1,870	1,938	114	76	110	0	0	0	4,108
Northampton	Boothville	3,262	Northampton North	1,175	612	45	38	14	0	0	0	1,884
Northampton	Brookside	3,167	Northampton North	933	1,461	53	99	22	0	0	0	2,568
Northampton	Eastfield	3,037	Northampton North	1,031	1,153	42	96	59	0	0	0	2,381
Northampton	Headlands	3,267	Northampton North	971	1,252	67	46	24	0	0	0	2,360
Northampton	Kingsley	3,453	Northampton North	1,139	1,215	63	104	25	0	0	0	2,546
Northampton	Kingsthorpe	3,546	Northampton North	1,118	765	70	93	53	0	0	0	2,099
Northampton	Obelisk	2,065	Northampton North	891	742	58	81	21	0	0	0	1,793
Northampton	Parklands	3,501	Northampton North	1,316	650	38	82	15	0	0	0	2,101
Northampton	Phippsville	2,828	Northampton North	1,041	822	60	80	57	0	0	0	2,060
Northampton	Rectory Farm	483	Northampton North	173	146	8	14	2	0	0	0	343
Northampton	Semilong	512	Northampton South	187	266	11	21	6	0	0	0	491
Northampton	Spring Park	3,605	Northampton North	1,157	745	61	86	54	0	0	0	2,103
Northampton	St David's	2,877	Northampton North	900	1,299	43	95	23	0	0	0	2,360
Northampton	Sunnyside	2,900	Northampton North	1,110	803	58	40	22	0	0	0	2,033
Northampton	Talavera	6,299	Northampton North	2,033	2,778	122	229	50	0	0	0	5,212
Northampton	Trinity	2,484	Northampton North	933	930	56	89	62	0	0	0	2,070
Northampton	Westone	3,371	Northampton North	1,088	679	47	38	16	0	0	0	1,868
	Total	55,943		19,066	18,256	1,016	1,407	635	0	0	0	40,380

The full details of these calculations are given on the Northampton North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Northampton South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Northampton South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Northampton South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northampton	Abington	590	Northampton North	199	204	19	10	16	0	0	0	448
Northampton	Billing	6,024	Northampton North	1,988	1,430	104	151	37	0	0	0	3,710
Northampton	Castle	6,670	Northampton South	2,116	3,469	173	131	230	0	0	0	6,119
Northampton	Delapre and Briar Hill	8,406	Northampton South	2,848	2,898	280	266	75	0	0	0	6,367
Northampton	Kings Heath	2,809	Northampton South	740	1,222	73	95	23	0	0	0	2,153
Northampton	New Duston	7,395	Northampton South	2,563	1,266	114	184	119	0	0	0	4,246
Northampton	Old Duston	6,208	Northampton South	1,909	1,155	92	154	32	0	0	0	3,342
Northampton	Park	3,553	Northampton North	1,251	504	62	75	19	0	0	0	1,911
Northampton	Rectory Farm	2,808	Northampton North	973	807	68	88	18	0	0	0	1,954
Northampton	Riverside	3,069	Northampton North	979	785	65	85	18	0	0	0	1,932
Northampton	Rushmills	2,643	Northampton South	1,040	576	64	70	18	0	0	0	1,768
Northampton	Semilong	2,150	Northampton South	756	1,059	85	95	30	0	0	0	2,025
Northampton	Spencer	3,203	Northampton South	896	1,355	93	106	27	0	0	0	2,477
Northampton	St James	2,699	Northampton South	899	1,242	105	111	32	0	0	0	2,389
Northampton	Talavera	241	Northampton North	75	101	9	9	2	0	0	0	196
	Total	58,468		19,232	18,073	1,406	1,630	696	0	0	0	41,037

The full details of these calculations are given on the Northampton South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Northampton North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Northampton North
Northampton	Abington	5,919	Northampton North	1,870	1,938	114	76	110	0	0	0	4,108
Northampton	Abington	668	Northampton South	199	204	19	10	16	0	0	0	448
Northampton	Billing	5,514	Northampton South	1,988	1,430	104	151	37	0	0	0	3,710
Northampton	Boothville	2,715	Northampton North	1,175	612	45	38	14	0	0	0	1,884
Northampton	Brookside	3,701	Northampton North	933	1,461	53	99	22	0	0	0	2,568
Northampton	Eastfield	3,431	Northampton North	1,031	1,153	42	96	59	0	0	0	2,381
Northampton	Headlands	3,399	Northampton North	971	1,252	67	46	24	0	0	0	2,360
Northampton	Kingsley	3,668	Northampton North	1,139	1,215	63	104	25	0	0	0	2,546
Northampton	Kingsthorpe	3,024	Northampton North	1,118	765	70	93	53	0	0	0	2,099
Northampton	Obelisk	2,583	Northampton North	891	742	58	81	21	0	0	0	1,793
Northampton	Park	2,841	Northampton South	1,251	504	62	75	19	0	0	0	1,911
Northampton	Parklands	3,026	Northampton North	1,316	650	38	82	15	0	0	0	2,101
Northampton	Phippsville	2,968	Northampton North	1,041	822	60	80	57	0	0	0	2,060
Northampton	Rectory Farm	494	Northampton North	173	146	8	14	2	0	0	0	343
Northampton	Rectory Farm	2,906	Northampton South	973	807	68	88	18	0	0	0	1,954
Northampton	Riverside	2,870	Northampton South	979	785	65	85	18	0	0	0	1,932
Northampton	Spring Park	3,031	Northampton North	1,157	745	61	86	54	0	0	0	2,103
Northampton	St David's	3,401	Northampton North	900	1,299	43	95	23	0	0	0	2,360
Northampton	Sunnyside	2,929	Northampton North	1,110	803	58	40	22	0	0	0	2,033
Northampton	Talavera	7,511	Northampton North	2,033	2,778	122	229	50	0	0	0	5,212
Northampton	Talavera	291	Northampton South	75	101	9	9	2	0	0	0	196
Northampton	Trinity	2,983	Northampton North	933	930	56	89	62	0	0	0	2,070
Northampton	Westone	2,692	Northampton North	1,088	679	47	38	16	0	0	0	1,868
	Total	72,565		24,344	21,821	1,332	1,804	739	0	0	0	50,040

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Northampton North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Michael Ellis (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	72,565
Turnout:	69.0%

Northampton North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Northampton North: Overview

Introduction